The threat of market disruption is one of the most significant challenges facing established companies. New technologies can emerge and reshape entire industries, seemingly overnight. With an estimated economic impact of $14 to $33 trillion annually, according to Canon Business Process Services, understanding the mechanics of disruption is not an academic exercise—it is essential for survival and growth. Yet, many leaders fail to see these shifts until it is too late.

We believe that identifying disruptive technologies does not have to be a matter of chance. By using our proprietary and patented Jobs to be Done (JTBD) methodology, we provide our portfolio companies with a systematic, proactive framework for anticipating market shifts. This guide explains our method for identifying technologies that can get a customer's job done faster and more accurately, creating new avenues for growth and accelerating equity value creation.

Table of Contents

• What Is Disruptive Technology?
• The Jobs to be Done Framework Explained
• Our 5-Step Method for Identifying Disruptive Technologies with JTBD
• A Real-World Application: Predicting Ride-Sharing with JTBD
• The Economic Scale of Disruption
• How We Analyze Disruptive Growth Opportunities
• Frequently Asked Questions
• A Proactive Strategy for Lasting Value
  
  
  

What Is Disruptive Technology?

The term "disruptive technology" was first introduced by Harvard professor Clayton Christensen, who was also a formative influence on our founder. It describes an innovation that creates a new market and value network, eventually displacing established market leaders and their products.

Disruption typically begins by appealing to overlooked segments. These technologies often initially underperform existing products in mainstream markets but offer other benefits, such as being simpler, more convenient, or less expensive. As the technology improves, it moves upmarket and displaces the incumbents. This phenomenon is known as the "Innovator's Dilemma," where successful companies fail because they continue to focus only on the current needs of their most profitable customers.

Examples of Disruptive Technologies:

• The Printing Press: Disrupted the work of scribes by making information production massively scalable
• Personal Computers: Disrupted mainframes and minicomputers by bringing computing power to individuals
• Artificial Intelligence: Is currently disrupting countless industries by automating complex analytical and creative tasks
  
  

The Jobs to be Done Framework Explained

To consistently identify disruptive potential, a company needs a stable point of reference. Technology and solutions change, but the customer's core needs do not. This is the central idea of our Jobs to be Done framework.

Our theory states that customers do not simply buy products; they "hire" them to get a specific "job" done. A commuter doesn't buy a coffee and a bagel; they hire them for the job of "making a morning commute less tedious." This perspective shifts the focus from product features to customer goals.

The classic example is the fast-food milkshake. When a restaurant chain wanted to improve milkshake sales, traditional market research on flavor and consistency yielded no results. By applying a JTBD lens, they found that many customers "hired" the milkshake for the job of "making a long, boring commute more interesting." The true competitors were not other milkshakes, but bananas, donuts, and anything else that could be consumed with one hand during a drive. The customer need was not a thicker or sweeter drink; it was a simple, clean, and engaging driving companion. Understanding the true job opened a new path for innovation. We apply this theory with a rigorous, quantitative process described in our JTBD training programs.

Our 5-Step Method for Identifying Disruptive Technologies with JTBD

Our AI-powered platform operationalizes the JTBD framework to give our portfolio companies a decisive advantage. We follow a disciplined, five-step process to pinpoint where new technology can disrupt an existing market.

Step 1: Define the Customer's Job

First, we precisely define the customer's core Job to be Done. This is the fundamental goal they are trying to achieve, independent of any current solution. For example, a music listener's job is to "create a mood with music," a job that has remained stable through the eras of vinyl, CDs, MP3s, and streaming.

Step 2: Map the Job

Next, we map the entire Job to be Done as a series of discrete steps. For the job of "create a mood with music," the steps might include:

• Determine the desired mood
• Identify appropriate songs
• Organize the song sequence
• Access the music instantly
  
  

Step 3: Identify Unmet Needs with Customer Effort Scores

For each step in the job map, we identify the metrics customers use to measure success. These are defined as action-variable pairs. For "organize the song sequence," a need might be "determine the optimal song order." We then measure the Customer Effort Score (CES) for each need—the percentage of customers who find it difficult to achieve. A high CES indicates significant customer struggle and a prime opportunity for innovation.

Step 4: Scan for Enabling Technologies

With a clear map of high-effort customer needs, we systematically scan for emerging technologies that could execute a job step dramatically better. This could be AI, IoT, blockchain, or advanced materials. The key is to match the technology's capability to a specific, high-effort customer need. For example, AI algorithms can now create a playlist based on a user's mood or activity with far greater speed and accuracy than manual selection.

Step 5: Assess Disruptive Potential

A technology has disruptive potential if it can address a high-CES need for an underserved customer segment. This could be a group that lacks the time, money, or skill to use existing solutions. By offering a simpler, more accessible way to get a part of the job done, a new technology gains a foothold from which it can expand and challenge incumbents. Our AI-powered platform helps our teams model this potential with speed and precision.

A Real-World Application: Predicting Ride-Sharing with JTBD

The rise of ride-sharing apps like Uber and Lyft is a perfect example of a disruption that could have been predicted using our JTBD method.

• The Job to be Done: Get to a destination on time
• The Incumbent Solution: Traditional taxi services
• High-Effort Needs: Customers struggled with key steps in the job. The CES was extremely high for needs like:
  • Determine vehicle arrival time
  • Calculate the total fare
  • Complete payment without cash
  • Ensure vehicle safety and cleanliness
• Enabling Technologies: The widespread adoption of smartphones with GPS, mobile internet, and integrated payment systems
• The Disruption: Ride-sharing companies used these enabling technologies to directly attack the highest-effort needs. They provided apps that allowed users to get the job done with far greater speed and accuracy. They did not invent a new car; they built a better system for executing the job.

By focusing on the job and the associated effort, our portfolio companies can anticipate similar shifts and adapt their product strategy before competitors do.

The Economic Scale of Disruption

The stakes are enormous. Beyond the trillions in potential economic value, disruption fundamentally reshapes labor markets and supply chains. As digital transformation accelerates, so do the associated risks. Deloitte projects that the global cost of cybercrime will reach $10.5 trillion in 2025, a reminder that technological progress requires careful management.

For CEOs and operators, the ability to distinguish between fleeting trends and true disruptive potential is critical. Companies that successfully navigate these shifts create immense equity value, while those that fail are often rendered obsolete. This is central to how we create value for our portfolio companies.

How We Analyze Disruptive Growth Opportunities

We do not simply advise companies; we implement our method with our portfolio companies to help them anticipate and capitalize on disruption. When working with portfolio company executives, we look for key indicators of disruptive potential:

• A Clear Focus on a Job to be Done: The company must be organized around solving a specific, measurable customer job, not just selling a product
• Targeting Underserved Customers: Strong opportunities often start by serving customers who are ignored by incumbents or are non-consumers of the current solutions
• A Technological Advantage that Reduces Effort: The core of the company's value proposition must be its ability to help customers execute a job step with significantly less effort, measured by speed and accuracy

Our process gives portfolio company executives the conviction to build roadmaps with the potential for explosive growth and helps create a durable competitive advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions

1.  What is the difference between disruptive technology and sustaining technology?

Sustaining technology improves existing products for an established company's mainstream customers. Disruptive technology creates a new market or value network, often by being simpler or more affordable, and eventually displaces incumbent technology.

2.  Why is the Jobs to be Done framework better for identifying disruption?

Other methods often focus on what customers say they want or on improving current products. JTBD focuses on the customer's underlying, stable goal. This provides a clear benchmark against which to evaluate the potential of a new technology to get the job done better.

3.  How does AI help in identifying disruptive technologies?

Our AI-powered tools accelerate the JTBD process. They can analyze large volumes of unstructured customer data to help identify job steps and unmet needs in hours instead of weeks. AI also helps us model how a new technology might impact Customer Effort Scores across an entire job map, quickly highlighting the most promising areas for innovation.

A Proactive Strategy for Lasting Value

Disruption is not a random force of nature. It is a predictable process that can be identified and acted upon with the right framework. By focusing on the customer's Job to be Done and measuring the effort required to achieve it, we can systematically find opportunities where new technology will create the next wave of market leaders.

This method is the foundation of our approach, enabling our portfolio companies to move faster, reduce risk, and build products that win.

Explore how our proprietary Jobs to be Done method creates equity value in our portfolio companies. Learn more about our platform and methodology.